What this is

This is where I'll publish the work I'd otherwise keep in a private notebook — single-name write-ups I'm actively researching, and the macro essays that contextualize them.

The shape of a typical post

Most pieces will follow roughly this structure:

1. The setup. A company, situation, or thesis I think is mispriced — and why it matters now.
2. The bull case. What needs to be true. The variant view.
3. The bear case. Honestly weighted, not strawmanned.
4. The numbers. Attached as an Excel file at the bottom.

On the spreadsheets

I find that working through a model is the fastest way to actually understand a business. So most posts come with the one I built — not because the answer is right, but because it lets you trace what I'm assuming and substitute your own inputs.

Download it. Break it. Argue with it. That's the point.

What this isn't

Nothing here is investment advice. I'm publishing this work because writing it up forces sharper thinking, and because the conversations it starts with other investors are usually worth more than the posts themselves.

If that sounds useful, subscribe below — one email per new post, never anything else.